THE BACKSTRETCH

IDENTIFYING THE FHF PICK 3
    
The first three races on the 9-10-11 Belmont card make a perfect example of a comfortable and profitable pick 3 using the FHF (fast horse format) of Slew's Fast Horses. Here is what the first three races looked like:

              HORSES FROM FAST RACES

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       NAME                   Trk Race  Last Race    Fin*FHF   ITM Avg|      Today

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3-Sunnybrook                   Bel  1  06Aug11  4SAR  3 * 4    32,916 |      9K / 4   (2-1)     WIN

1A-Juliann's Approval          Bel  1  14Aug11 10SAR  1 * 3    27,714 |     14K / 8   (15-1)

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8-Leap Day                     Bel  2  21May11  3BEL  2 * 3    29,487 |     -8K / 4   (10-1)

6-Missile Motor                Bel  2  30Jul11 11MP   3 * 3+   27,334 |     -6K / 6   (6-1)     WIN

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5-Take a Walk                  Bel  3  22Jul11  6SAR  6 * 3    28,916 |     -7K / 2   (5-2)     WIN


Sunnybrook was a clear ML favorite and rightly so. Dropping into statebred company, having won 3 out of 9 at the distance AND being 11-16 in the money, she was a great fit. The race indicated above was on Aug. 6th, and not shown in the past performances is the fact that there was already a winner next out. As a 4 rated race, this race was fast, and you would expect a winner next out. In fact, Sunnybrook made it 2 winners next out because she won her next race on Aug. 22nd facing open company. And with Juliann's Approval a throwout, Sunnybrook is an easy bet coming off of a "4" and a win. The problem is that she was offered up at odds of $1.30 - 1. Not acceptable.

In the 3rd, Take a Walk was a 5-2 ML second choice behind an 8-5 ML favorite but a winner on speed figs alone. His '3' rated race was his only turf start, where he beat half the field in a restricted 20K claimer at Saratoga, then was a good third in a 15K claimer at Saratoga. He was made the odds-on favorite by sharp handicappers in the Belmont race and won easily.

This profile, or two horses who look to be very likely the winners in two of three consecutive races makes this bet a wonderful pick 3 opportunity. What makes it all the more interesting is that the pivot race has only two horses listed out of the eight starters. Leap Day, while listed on top of Missle Motor, had one poor start off a 3 month layoff for connections winning at a lowly .04% rate. Further, Leap Day's listed race was his last before the layoff. While that race was a very good one in which he finished 2nd by a nose, it appears to have precipitated the layoff with his comback race being a poor performance. Missile Motor on the other hand, was in good form and is an old pro, with a win percentage at the distance of .32%, and running in his 3rd start off a 2 month layoff.

A saver bet of 3 / All / 5 paid $107.50 for an investment of $16. The bet here was a $20 pick 3 of 3 / 6 / 5 which returned a
cool grand.

This is a great example of using the Fast Horse Format to guide your play. There is an old racetrack axiom:

"Play the card, instead of letting the card play you".

This is an example of Slew's Fast Horses suggesting opportunities and how and when to play the card.

Click HERE to see how the rest of the day looked and how these three races just jumped off the page.


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